UCL Tips: Juve To Struggle In This 5/1 Treble
LB looks at three Champions League games and shares a 5/1 treble across Tuesday and Wednesday including, goals in France and a quiet night at Anfield
The Champions League is back with some mouth watering fixtures and juicy betting propositions. It can be hard to compare the relative strengths across leagues this early in the season but there are still a few angles worth looking at.
Malmo v Juventus Tue 14 Sept 20:00 BST
The first game up for me is Juventus’ trip to Malmo. The Old Lady is inside 1/2 and that offers no value at all. Juventus have not kept a clean sheet since a win over Spezia way back in March. They have conceded in 19 consecutive competitive games since then (plus all of their friendlies) and are simply not a strong defensive unit any more. They are making silly mistakes that are very unlike Juventus and have developed a worrying tendency to concede late.
Malmo are definitely not world beaters but they will be licking their lips at the chance to play Juventus now. Max Allegri’s team have played just three matches so far and do not look sharp. Malmo, on the other hand, are 18 games into their domestic season and will be more match-fit than their visitors.
I would not be surprised if Malmo took a scalp here. Juventus have a lot of players who enjoyed late returns this summer after the Euros and the exertions of Bonucci and Chiellini have left a sluggishness in the centre of their defense. They are also yet to click up front and have created far fewer chances than they have allowed to their opponents. The straight home win is 6/1 and is definitely tempting at that price.
On the more conservative side, Malmo are 3/5 to score and that will be the first bet into my week-long acca. There is undoubtedly a chasm in quality between these sides and with the likes of Dybala and Morata, Juventus are deservedly favourites. They very well may tire late on, though, and allow Malmo to score. Twice already this season Juventus have conceded two second half goals and their age and lack of game time might get shown up here.
Lille v Wolfsburg Tue 14 Sept 20:00 BST
Die Wölfe are top of the German league and at a glance you might think their form is better than it truly is. Four wins from four has to be respected under any conditions, but three of their victories so far have come against Bundesliga fodder. True, you can only beat what’s in front of you, but Bochum, Hertha Berlin and Greuther Fürth are not exactly elite European clubs. The win against RB Leipzig impressed but Die Roten have lost 3 times already this term and are not yet up to speed.
Wolfsburg travel to France to take on an unpredictable (unless your name is Dermot) Lille. The reigning French champions are struggling this season and their leaky defense is costing them valuable points. That being said, they have not been poor and have scored 7 times already in the league.
Four of Lille’s last five games have seen BTTS and regular readers of the site will know that it has been a profitable market for us. BTTS is 7/10 here and that goes into the acca although there is plenty of value in the home win. Lille to win and BTTS is 4/1 and I can’t pass on that price.
Liverpool v AC Milan Wed 14 Sept 20:00 BST
Wednesday has a host of exciting match-ups that are hard to call from a betting point of view. In truth, this should be a no-bet night of football but one market does stand out. Liverpool have comfortably swatted aside a number of the weaker Premier League opponents but they struggled against a ten-man Chelsea. They are certainly getting back to their old selves but they still lack that spark. They host a solid looking AC Milan that, while impressive, are yet to truly inspire.
Milan have only conceded once so far in 4.5 hours of Serie A football. Although Milan have scored plenty domestically, Liverpool will be a step up in class and I’m not sure either of the veteran big men up front for the Rossoneri will cause much trouble. Under 2.5 goals at 13/10 seems hearty and I’ll take it for the acca.
Malmo Double Chance @ 13/8
Lille To Win & BTTS @ 4/1
Treble: Malmo To Score, Lille v Wolfsburg BTTS, Liverpool v AC Milan U2.5 Goals @ 5/1