The Live Action Acca: Plenty Of Goals In This 14/1 Treble
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We Bet – You Win
To celebrate the growing success of our BetAlong stream we have added a new section called we bet – you win. Each week we will put €10 on the Live Action Acca and if the bet wins we will give the money (€156.75) to one of the most engaged viewers of our livestream, either on Youtube, Facebook or Twitter.
Southampton v Aston Villa -Fri 05 Nov 20:00 GMT – Gaz
I’ve been lucky enough to see both of these teams play live this season, so I’m pretty confident I have a good handle on this one. Aston Villa come into this tie severely out of form and they’ve lost their last four league games. While the losses are an obvious worry, the manner of the defeats will be the most concerning element for Dean Smith. They’ve conceded 12 goals in those 4 games, and you just can’t do that at this level and expect results.
In total those 4 matches saw 17 goals scored, an average of 4.25 goals per game. Normally when stats like that present themselves I’d be foaming at the mouth to back over 2.5 match goals (17/20). I have a couple of concerns on that front though. Firstly, the Villa management will be aware of those stats and I can see the team lining up with a “do not concede” mentality. A defense containing Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings and Emi Martinez really shouldn’t be conceding that many, and if they put it together on Friday it could be a bet wrecker.
My second concern is that Southampton aren’t what I would describe as prolific in front of goal. The Saints have been creating lots of chances, but they are struggling to convert. In their 10 league games this season they’ve only scored 9 goals. Given those concerns I see both the goals and win market as being dodgy.
On all known form Southampton (evens) should win this match, but Villa’s quality leaves a lingering doubt. Instead I’m looking at the trusty shots on target market and I think I’ve spotted some value. Southampton striker Che Adams has scored in his last 2 games and he’s very much a confidence player. Southampton may have struggled to score, but they’ve created quite a lot of gilt edged chances. Adams is available at 14/5 to have 2+ shots on target and that looks too big to me.
OH Leuven v KV Oostende – Fri 05 Nov 19:45 GMT – LB
This game is something of a must win for both teams, albeit for different reasons. OHL badly need to start converting goals into points if they want to stay ahead of the relegation battle. For Oostende a win is needed if they want to remain within touching distance of the playoff spots.
Despite being 11th in the table Leuven have only 3 losses so far, the fourth fewest in the division. That being said, they have just two wins, with only rock-bottom Beerschot picking up fewer. I do expect OHL to grab up all three points but with their patchy form and tendency to draw I’ll stay away.
I don’t know what to make of Oostende this season. They picked up impressive early wins against Genk, Gent and Liege, but since then things have gone downhill. They have only three wins in ten league games, and those have come against the bottom three in the division, Seraing, Cerce and Beerschot.
Both teams will fancy their chances here and for that reason goals look generously priced. There have been five goals scored after the 80th minute in Leuven’s last five games, and three in Oostende’s, and both teams have a tendency to throw away leads. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 4/5 is the pick here. This target has been reached in 4 of Leuven’s last 5 games and 7 of Oostende’s last 8.
Den Bosch v De Graafschap – Fri 05 Nov 19:00 GMT – Slatts
Following a limited schedule of Dutch football last Friday night, the Eerste Divisie returns to an 8 game slate this week, offering plenty of betting opportunities. The stand-out fixture here is between 14th place Den Bosch and 2nd spot De Graafschap.
The hosts come into this game on some decent form, with 7 points from their last 3 games. The Dragons have won 3 of their last 4 home games, and have scored 9 goals across their 7 home fixtures this season. They face a formidable opponent here however, and it’s no surprise to see them at 4/1 to get a win.
De Graafschap travel with confidence – their away form is the best in the league with 5 wins from 6 outings. They are unbeaten in their last 7 games, and have scored in 16 straight away league fixtures. While their price of 1/2 to take the 3 points here is understandable, it is not exactly alluring.
Den Bosch should be capable of getting on the score sheet, while ultimately losing the game. Given their form and capacity to score at home, it seems reasonable that they shouldn’t go down without a fight. The odds on De Graafschap to win and BTTS is 17/10, a considerable increase on the win alone. The last 2 seasons these sides played 4 times and on each of those occasions both sides found the net, with De Graafschap winning 3 of the 4.
Southampton v Aston Villa – Che Adams 2+ SOT @ 14/5 (William Hill)
OH Leuven v KV Oostende – O2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 4/5 (Bet365)
Den Bosch v De Graafschap – De Graafschap To Win & BTTS @ 7/4 (William Hill)
Treble: OH Leuven v KV Oostende – O2.5 Goals, Den Bosch v De Graafschap – De Graafschap To Win & BTTS @ 7/4, Southampton v Aston Villa – Che Adams 2+ SOT @ 14.67/1 *
* Not all bookmakers offer the shots on target market and/or the over 2.5 goals & BTTS market. With that in mind we’ve adjusted our treble to include over 2.5 goals only in the Leuven game, however we will still back the single at 4/5.