The Live Action Acca: A Club & Country Combo Pays 13/1

The World Cup Qualifiers take centre stage this Friday but we also have some League Two value for the YouTube live show

Turkey v Norway    Fri 08 Oct 19:45 BST – LB

Norway travel to Istanbul for a vital Group G game on Friday night, and the hosts need a win to get back on track. This World Cup qualifying campaign could not have started better for Turkey, with wins over The Netherlands and Norway in the opening two games.

However the Turks had a rough summer. First of all they were abject throughout the Euros, but either side of that they dropped points at home against Group G minnows Latvia and Montenegro. In both games, Turkey were ahead by two goals and both times they conceded late and drew the match. With the Oranje and Norway both beating the group’s weaker teams, Turkey now find themselves third despite beating both of the nations above them.

Turkey are 21/20 and I think that is a great price. Norway tend to dispatch the smaller nations with ease and come undone against everyone else. Their form looks impressive at first glance, but the only wins for Norway in 2021 have come against Gibraltar, Latvia, Luxembourg and Montenegro. Turkey won the reverse fixture (played in Spain) 3-0 and they are simply a better team than Norway. Also, the Scandinavians will have to play without Erling Haaland. The youngster was just making his mark for the national side but picked up an injury with Dortmund.

There have been 29 goals in Turkey’s 6 games so far, averaging nearly 5 goals per game. Over 2.5 goals here is a little over 4/5 and that looks a great price too, however the straight home win at 21/20 is the pick here.

 

Iceland v Armenia    Fri 08 Oct 19:00 BST – Slatts

Armenia sit in second place in Group J, and having never qualified for a major tournament this certainly feels like their greatest opportunity. It should be said that they have only been competing as a sovereign state since the ’96 Euros qualifiers, however across 13 qualifying campaigns since, they have not even made it to a play-off, and generally finish bottom or second from bottom.

They face Iceland who have been disappointing with only a solitary victory, over Liechtenstein, in their 6 games thus far. The reverse fixture saw an Armenia upset with a 2-0 victory, and another result in Reykjavik this weekend is needed to keep their qualification hopes on track. While Iceland sit on 4 points, and are 5 points behind 4th placed North Macedonia, qualification is still possible. They have gotten their two games (both defeats) against group leaders Germany out of the way, and it’s not inconceivable that they could win their remaining 4 fixtures.

That will need to begin with a big performance in front of a home crowd, and the Nordic Nation will need to go all out for this win. A defeat would leave them 10 points behind Armenia with 3 games to play, and mathematically out of the running.

What way this one goes is anyone’s guess, but my feeling is both teams need to aim for a win. While a draw wouldn’t be a bad result for Armenia, looking at their remaining fixtures they will struggle to hold onto second spot without a victory here. This type of dynamic often results in a goal fest, and there are further stats to back this up.

Iceland’s last 10 games have averaged 3.2 goals per game, and 7 of those have had over 2.5 goals. Armenia’s games don’t tend to yield as many goals, but this campaign their games have averaged 2.7 goals. They managed to put 2 past Iceland last time, and will fancy their chances pick up a goal or two here. While BTTS is good price at 19/20, it wouldn’t be a huge shock for Iceland to win comfortably to nil. With that in mind the value bet looks to be over 2.5 match goals at odds of 23/20.

 

Tranmere v Colchester    Fri 08 Oct 19:45 BST – Gaz

I fancy a draw in this League Two tie, and the stats back this up. These sides have played 19 games between them this season and all bar two were settled by a single goal or ended in a draw.

Tranmere have played 10 games so far but have only managed to score 6 goals. They have scored zero or 1 goal in 8 of those games. On the flip side, their defense has been impressive and Rovers have only conceded 4 goals so far, keeping 6 clean sheets.

Colchester are marginally better in front of goal, having scored 7 times in 9 games. They also concede slightly more than Tranmere, having allowed 9 goals against so far. Only 15% of the games involving these teams have seen over 2.5 goals, so we can expect a dull affair on Friday. With two evenly matched teams that do not tend to score or concede much, the draw looks the right call at 11/5.

SRD Selections:

Turkey v Norway – Turkey to win @ 21/20

Iceland v Armenia – Over 2.5 Goals @ 23/20

Tranmere v Colchester – Draw @ 11/5

The above treble is available with Bet365 at odds of 13/1