The College Football Dogs: Week 12 Bets and Picks

LB is 12-3 over three weeks and shares the best dogs and CFB picks this weekend

Last week was a difficult one for the column. Although I went 4-1 ATS, it was a losing weekend due to my staking. I was sure Purdue would trouble OSU but they were 21 points down before the first break so the moneyline and ATS bets were as good as dead. Every other call was correct though and I’m now 12-3 ATS over the last three weeks.

 

Arizona @ Washington State (Friday)

This is a simple one. The Wildcats continue to be underestimated due to their woeful record and I will continue to bet on them until the public catches on. Arizona has covered in four consecutive games and are 6-1 ATS when dogs of a touchdown or more.

Washington State, for their part, has also been impressive against the spread this season. However, that has mostly been when they are underdogs themselves, and the Cougars have only covered once when favoured.

Arizona has been much improved this last month or so. They picked up their first win against California, and pushed both USC and Utah all the way. I wouldn’t be surprised if they got their second win here, but either way 15 points looks like too many for the Cougars to lay.

 

Wake Forest @ Clemson

Any regular readers of the column will remember we made quite a bit of profit laying Clemson earlier in the season. They were (and remain) one of the worst teams ATS but once the public gave up on DJ Uiagalelei and co the betting value faded. However, this line is too good to ignore.

Wake Forest are 9-1 for the season and still in the hunt for a history-making playoff spot. Their only loss this season was a 55-58 reversal at North Carolina, under the most bizarre circumstances. Despite leading late in the 4th quarter, Wake went for it on 4th down and lost possession deep inside their own half. They then gave away two penalties for unsportsmanlike conduct, and 10 seconds later the Tar Heels had the lead. In fact, that final quarter saw Wake Forest twice give up the ball on downs, throw an interception and concede 24 points.

Aside from that meltdown they have been rock solid this season. They average over 44 points per game and are clearly the best team in the ACC. Clemson, on the other hand, are 5-2 in conference and have not beaten anyone of note. They lost to Georgia (fair enough), NC State and Pittsburgh already. Hard-fought wins against Boston College and Syracuse might seem impressive, but they were favoured by 23.5 and 28.5 points respectively pre-season.

The big risk here is that Wake Forest are not great against the pass. However, I do not believe Uiagalelei will be able to take advantage. The Demon Deacons should win this game straight up.

 

Michigan @ Maryland

This is a difficult one to explain but I have a feeling that the Wolverines will not have it all their own way here. Michigan scores more than Maryland, they concede (far) less and have a much superior record. However, for some reason I am not sure they are as good as they look on paper. The only two standout wins came against Penn State and Wisconsin, and in both cases Michigan played those schools at the best possible moment (as both were on bad losing runs). The Wolverines are ranked higher than their bitter rivals MSU, despite losing to them already and it just adds to my feeling that Michigan is overrated.

Maryland has played one of the most difficult schedules this season and will need a win here to get back on track for a post season bowl game. Three of their losses have come against Top 10 sides and this line just seems a little off.

 

UCLA @ USC

On paper you could make a case that the Trojans have turned the corner. However, they are 2-4 going back to September, with those two wins coming against Colorado (3-7) and Arizona (1-9). UCLA is not as good as everyone thought in the summer, but they are a lot better than USC. Their only recent losses have come against the best in the west, Utah and Oregon, and when the Bruins win they win well. Their average winning margin is 17.5 points and they are yet to win by less than a touchdown.

Yes, UCLA are still prone to an off day but I don’t see them switching off against a Los Angeles rival. If you think there is an upset on the cards here just take USC at the moneyline. My money is on a comfortable Bruins win.

 

Auburn @ South Carolina

The Tigers are miles ahead of South Carolina and I’m surprised this line is in single digits. Auburn are 6-4 but they have been victims of their schedule. Three of their four losses have come against Top 15 programs, plus Mississippi State. South Carolina’s wins have all come against very beatable teams, plus Florida, and I think the gulf between these two is significant.

Auburn have already beaten #10 Ole Miss (by 11), #17 Arkansas (by 17) and LSU. They even managed to score a touchdown against Georgia which is an achievement itself! The Tigers have managed to score at least 30 points in six games already and will be too much for the Gamecocks.

 

SRD Selections:

Arizona @ Washington State – Arizona +15 @ 10/11

Arizona @ Washington State – Arizona moneyline win @ 5/1

Wake Forest @ Clemson – Wake Forest +5.5 @ 10/11

Wake Forest @ Clemson – Wake Forest moneyline win @ 17/10

Michigan @ Maryland – Maryland +15 @ 10/11

UCLA @ USC – UCLA -3 @ 10/11

Auburn @ South Carolina – Auburn -7.5 @ 10/11

Parlay of Arizona, Wake Forest, UCLA & Auburn at a little over 12/1 (+1228).

Interested in NFL Betting? Join us for our Thanksgiving Betting Special Livestream this Tuesday 23rd November at 22:00 GMT (17:00 EST). We’ll be previewing all three matches and highlighting the best TD Scorer, Against The Spread and Player prop bets.

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