Super Bowl LVI: Time To Deliver

Bassett takes a look at the best betting plays as the greatest show on earth is just hours away.

And so we arrive at the climax of the NFL season where two teams with vastly differing skill sets will lock horns at Sofi Stadium in Los Angeles. The LA Rams are the designated away team but actually enjoy the comfort of home field advantage. There’s so much to dig in to and so many questions to try and answer. The all star Rams’ have put so much into reaching the pinnacle of the sport, while the Bengals have surpassed all expectations to give themselves a chance of claiming the big one. There’s no doubt Joe Burrow and co. will be the side most neutrals will be shouting for.

The bookmakers have the Rams as solid 4.5 point favourites, justifiably so given the resources they have poured into the quest to claim the big one. With Vonn Miller assisting Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey the Rams defense is undoubtedly a grade A setup and how they perform will ultimately decide the destination of the Vince Lombadri Trophy.

Cagey Opening to Bring Unders into play

From a betting perspective there are many angles to analyse. We have the Rams as early season picks to claim the big one and those who listened, and are sitting on 14/1 tickets, will be feeling really good about their chances. I’m one of those who followed the ante post shout and with enough invested in the win market already I’ll be focusing on other areas to try make the night as profitable as possible. The first landing spot is the points total with the 48.5 point line looking like one well worth tackling.

These two teams who will no doubt approach the game wanting to limit big plays and the Rams will try to reduce Joe Burrows impact by controlling time in possession. With so much on the line I expect a cagey opening half where both head coaches will want to take care of the football. The Bengals won’t won’t to fall behind early on as they’ll be forced to become one dimensional and essentially play into the hands of the Rams. It might not be the most exciting of bets but under 48.5 points @10/11 looks a decent bet if the game pans out as expected.

Along the same lines of thinking (cagey start with sides growing into the game), the 21/10 about the first quarter being the lowest scoring looks one well worth having on side.

Burrow to Take what’s on offer

Focusing further on the likely conservative play calling for the Bengals I can Joe Burrow using RB Joe Mixon quite a lot in the first half. Mixon should feature heavily in they play calling whether it be on the ground or through the air and the 10/11 for him having over 3.5 receptions looks a live play.

If the Rams Defense so show up the Bengals could need rookie kicker Evan McPherson to keep the clock ticking over. McPherson has been automatic (12 from 12) in the playoffs and looks to have nerves of steel. His field goal over/under is set at 1.5 and that looks an outstanding bet considering he’s averaged 4 kicks a game in the post season thus far.

Rush Hour

With Darrell Henderson reportedly back active for the Rams it is likely there’ll be three pronged running attack and that makes the under on Cam Akers 64.5 yards @10/11 also a strong pick.  Sony Michel has been a solid, consistent option for Sean McVay and he’s sure to have his share of touches. This pick looks like a gimmie to me especially considering Akers has got nowhere the threshold in his three playoff games.

Last but not least I’m focusing on the rushing yards for the man of the moment Joe Borrow. He’s been set a target of 12.5 yards and that looks attainable. With a dodgy offensive line Burrow will need to scramble and keep plays alive and it’s conceivable he can produce one or two surging runs beat the line.

SRD Selections

Under 48.5 points, Joe Mixon over 3.5 receptions, Cam Akers under 64.5 yards Rushing. Treble pays 6/1

First Quarter to be the lowest Scoring at 21/10.

Second half to be highest scoring, Evan McPherson to kick over 1.5 field goals. Double pays 2/1