Serie A Tips: Struggling Spezia To Share The Spoils

Enzo's search for Serie A value continues and he's back with his best bets for this weekends Italian football action

Spezia v Napoli    Sat May 8  14:00 BST

I tipped Spezia to get the better of Hellas Verona last week but they couldn’t quite complete the job and only managed a 1-1 draw. I wasn’t too confident in my prediction, given their dismal away record, but the price was generous and was definitely worth a shot. This week  however is a different prospect. Spezia are a much stronger side at home and their recent record (W4 D3 L1) at the Stadio Alberto Picco is strong. With a 3 point gap and a far superior goal difference to Benevento in 18th, a point here should be the objective for the Aquilotti.

Napoli are on a great run of form lately (W5 D2 L1) but had a blip on Saturday when they drew at home with Cagliari. That result leaves them 2 points outside the champions league spots behind Juve, Milan and Atalanta who are all on 69.

Spezia have shown they are more than a match for the big clubs at home. They have drawn with Inter and Atalanta and beaten Milan so I fancy them to get a result on Saturday. A win may be too much to ask for so the draw @ 7/2 is what i will be backing. Under 2.5 match goals @ 7/5 is also an attractive proposition. 50% of Spezia’s last 8 home games have seen less than 3 goals and only one of Napoli’s last 5 away have exceeded 2.5. If you are feeling frivolous the draw/under 2.5 is priced @ 11/2.

Fiorentina v Lazio   Sat May 8  19.45 BST

My third Serie A tip is a goals one. Lazio still have a chance at Champions League football next season so they need to win to keep the pressure on the Top 4. Three of their last 5 have gone over the 3.5 goals scored mark.

Fiorentina can still be drawn into the relegation scrap but they have been playing to win lately and five of their last 8 have had over 3.5 match goals.

Unders are not for the fainthearted and are a horrible bet to have on if you are watching the game. Overs on the other hand are a far more pleasurable punting experience so over 3.5 @ 31/20 is what I’m backing in this one.

Verona v Torino   Sun May 9   14:00 BST

As a I mentioned last week Verona have really tailed off lately and the squad look like they are already thinking about the summer holidays. Their overall form is rotten with just one win in eight and their recent home record (W0 L4 D1) is even worse. Of course that lone draw came against Spezia who I had tipped to win. Verona have nothing to play for and that really showed in the sluggish nature of their recent performances.

Torino are fresh from a vital victory over Parma which gave them a 3 point relegation cushion. They do have a game in hand over their fellow strugglers and like Spezia, have a superior goal difference to Benevento. Toro do have a very tricky run in though so a trip to a disinterested Hellas is probably their easiest chance to get points  on the board. La Granata are favourites but 13/10 for a Torino win  is a decent price and one I am willing to take.

The under 2.5 match goals market also presents some value. Only one of Torino’s last 5 has gone over and four of Verona’s last 5 home games have seen under 2.5 goals, @ EVS it’s a price worth taking. Again if you fancy flinging caution to the wind Torino/Under 2.5 is available at 5/2.

 

SRD Selections

Spezia v Napoli: Under 2.5 Match goals @ 7/5

Spezia v Napoli: Draw @ 7/2

Fiorentina v Lazio: Over 3.5 @ 31/20

Verona v Torino: Torino win @ 13/10

Verona v Torino: Under 2.5 Match Goals @ EVS