NFL Touchdown Tips: The Full Monty
After coming agonisingly close to landing a 22/1 accumulator last week Gaz is back with his best bets for week 3 of the NFL season.
I’m not going to lie, I’m still reeling from last week’s treble not landing. After Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase both bagged a TD in the early games, our bet rolled to Jared Cook to score for the Chargers. In the fourth quarter of the Chargers game Jared Cook caught a 2 yard TD pass triggering joyous celebrations. Those celebrations were short lived however. A motion penalty chalked off that score and cost followers a nice payday. If you followed the advised strategy of backing singles and the accumulator you would have made a small profit, which can’t be quibbled at. That said, the 22/1 accumulator would have nice.
Arizona Cardinals @ Jackson Jaguars
I think most people are expecting this game to be a stroll in the park for the Cardinals. The Red Birds have started the season in blistering form on offense and they’re sure to rack up a big score here. The problem for bettors is picking which one of their talented offense is the best bet. I’m going to go for the obvious pick of star WR DeAndre Hopkins. While it’s slightly unoriginal, and even though the price is a shade of odds-on (10/11), I think there’s value there. Hopkins has been brilliant in the opening two games. He’s got three touchdowns already and he’ll be targeted regularly on Sunday. The Jags defense is ranked 28th in total defense and this could get embarrassing.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
This match-up has all the hallmarks of a shootout and should be very entertaining. The Bengals lost last week against the Bears and put in a bit of a flat performance. They’ll be looking to bounce back here against their NFC North rivals. I have to admit I was tempted to select last weeks’ hero Ja’Marr Chase but his price is a little short. I also looked at Bengals QB Joe Burrow who looks a big price at 11/2 (SkyBet).
My bet here will be Steelers WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu was the top dog in Pittsburgh not too long ago, but the emergence of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool has knock him down the pecking order. So much so that he had to take a significant pay cut in order to remain a Steeler this season. That loyalty looks to be paying off and I’ve been impressed with his start this term. His numbers aren’t going to blow you away but he’s made some big plays. There hasn’t been a receiving TD yet this season but he did rush for one last week. With Diontae Johnson out for this game, JuJu’s workload will increase and he looks a solid bet.
Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns
Most of the build-up to this match has been dominated by the news that rookie QB Justin Fields will start for the Bears. Matt Nagy has said that Andy Dalton will regain the starters spot when he recovers from injury. In reality though the door is very much open for the rookie QB to secure his spot as the franchise QB. I think Nagy will look to ease Fields into the game and a lot of the work load will be on the shoulders of running back David Montgomery. “Monty” had a slightly disappointing game last week but his numbers against the Rams (108 yards & 1 TD) in week 1 were impressive. If he’s on form on Sunday he should get into the endzone.
The main fear with this selection is the form of the Browns defense against the rush. They’ve been pretty stingy thus far allowing an average of 77.5 yards per game. That’s an obvious concern but I think the price of 2/1 more than makes up for it.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Jets fans started the season hoping that QB Zach Wilson was the answer to their prayers. Two games into the season they’d probably settle for having Sam Darnold back. The grass isn’t always greener. Wilson was toxic last week throwing four interceptions. Things don’t get much easier this week as the Jets travel to Mile High to face the Broncos. I can only see this going one way, and that’s a Broncos rout.
It’s well known the QB’s struggle with the altitude in Denver, but add in a mean defense and it looks as though the Broncos offense will get lots of time on the field. My bet here is TE Noah Fant who is looking to establish himself as an elite player. He bagged a TD last week and enjoyed two RedZone targets in each of the opening two games. Those games were on the road and against better opposition. Now at home against a pretty dysfunctional team I think he’s a great bet at a juicy 13/5.
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars – DeAndre Hopkins Anytime TD (10/11 Betfair)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers – JuJu Smith-Schuster Anytime TD (17/10 Betfair)
Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns – David Montgomery Anytime TD (2/1 Betfair)
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos – Noah Fant Anytime TD (13/5 Betfair)
Above in an accumulator (54/1)