Ligue 1: Gallic Goals Galore
With goals the order of the day, Dermo dishes up a tasty 13/1 treble in France.
We are set for Gameweek 17 of the Ligue 1 season and it looks like it could be a goal-fest. The only match where the average combined goals per game average is less than 2.5 is Lorient v Nantes fixture. I’ll be avoiding that match like the plague.
Lens v PSG – December 4th 20:00 GMT
Lens have hit a bad patch in the league with a record of W2-D2-L3 over the last 7 matches. That said, they have still managed to score 10 goals in their last 3 home games and have netted 17 times in their 8 games at Estadio Bollaert-Delelis this season.
PSG on the other hand are winning more consistently but performances have been somewhat underwhelming. They have only one clean sheet in 5 games and in reality they are lucky to even have that one. Kasper Dolberg’s incredible miss on Wednesday evening let them off the hook. PSG’s last 4 away matches have yielded 16 goals in total, with both sides finding the net in each.
Both teams to score is a tempting option here, however the better value bet is over 2.5 match goals, which would allow for a comfortable PSG win to nil. These two sides have a combined average of 3.16 goals per game, so while over 2.5 goals is odds on at 4/7, it feels extremely likely to hit here.
Montpellier v Clermont – December 5th 14:00 GMT
Montpellier have settled into a nice rhythm and style after selling star strikers Gaetan Laborde and Andy Delort. Teji Savanier is still undoubtedly the key man. La Paillade lost the game he was sent off in as well as the following game which he was suspended for. He announced his return with a goal and assist in the 3-1 win at Metz, and his influence should continue into this fixture.
Clermont stopped a run of 5 defeats with an excellent draw against Lens. The men from Auvergne were once again thankful for star striker Mohamed Bayo’s contribution, with his 8th Ligue 1 goal of the season bringing the game to 2-2. Clermont have not won on the road since the opening game of the season, however they have managed to score 9 goals in their 8 away ties so far.
Montpellier are evens for the win, which looks like good value given their recent form, along with Clermont’s travelling troubles. With the expectation of plenty of goals here (combined average 3.03 total goals per game), the pick is Montpellier to win and over 2.5 goals, available at just over 2/1.
Bordeaux v Lyon – December 5th 14:00 GMT
Bordeaux went into Wednesday’s game with a record of 19 total goals in their previous 4 matches. They came out of the game bringing their total to 26 in 5 games. Unfortunately for Vladimir Petkovic’s charges 5 of those additional 7 goals were against them as they were thumped 5-2 by Strasbourg.
While they have conceded more than anyone in Ligue 1 so far this season, Bordeaux are more than capable of getting on the score sheet themselves, with 11 of their last 12 league games finishing with both sides scoring. While they sit in 18th position, only teams in the top 6 have outscored Les Girondins, a stark indication of how their defence is letting them down.
Lyon’s attempt to make a charge at a Champion’s League spot is suffering from inconsistent league form. They have alternated a win followed by a loss over the last 6 games. The loss to Reims was particularly damning, proving that even Jerome Boateng can’t shore up a leaky rear guard. 6 of their last 7 away matches have had goals at both ends, with a total of 27 goals across those 7 games.
All things considered, Lyon should have enough class to outscore their hosts, though any clean sheet seems extremely unlikely. They are 4/6 for the straight win, and the bump to odds of 19/10 for the away win and both teams to score looks too good to ignore.
Lens Vs PSG – Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/7
Montpellier to Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/10 (Bet365)
Lyon to Win & BTTS @ 19/10 (WilliamHill)
Above in a treble pays 13/1 (Bet365)