Ligue 1: Down on the Bayo

Dermot is back with a look at Gameweek 10 in Ligue 1. Here's hoping the last minute goals go in our favour this weekend.

Gameweek 9’s selections were sunk by a last kick of the game goal in the Nice Vs Brest match. However, as an advertisement for the luck factor in sports betting, we did land the week 4 treble with the last kick of the game. Week 9 had the biggest upset in French football, and possibly European football, when Rennes beat PSG at home 2-0. It was a very comfortable win in the end. I had mentioned that I would be backing Rennes and Bordeaux (not even close!) in the previous post, so I hope a few got on as a single to cover the heartbreak of that Brest goal in Nice.

Gameweek 10 has some interesting games lined up with the stand out game being Lyon vs Monaco. Both sides have put some solid performances together in the past 2 or 3 games. It will be a good test to see where both sides are at for the rest of the season. I have swerved that game as either the form of each team will be legitimate or false which creates too many potential outcomes.

Clermont Vs Lille – October 16th 16:00 BST

Mohamed Bayo’s shooting boots will be the decider in this game. In gameweek 8 we got very lucky when he scored and missed 2 sitters in the space of 7 minutes against Monaco. If he is on song José Fonte and Sven Botman are in for a tough afternoon. At 37, I’d imagine Fonte will sit off whilst Botman marks, but once Bayo gets Fonte one vs one there will be a lot of trouble for an already shaky Lille defense.

Clermont’s defense is becoming their Achilles Heel. Monaco had 3 shots on target and scored with the lot in gameweek 8. Lorient only managed the one chance and scored in gameweek 9. Burak Yilmaz will add to those numbers if the opportunity arises. I can see a decent amount of goals in this game so over 2.5 goals looks a solid play.

Troyes Vs Nice – October 17th 12:00 BST

17th versus 3rd. I’d have Nice as a 1/3 shot here so the general price of 5/6 looks mighty value. Only PSG has more away wins than Nice. The same goes for goals scored away. Furthermore, Nice lead the league in least goals conceded away from home. Troyes inability to score (joint lowest in the league) should be maintained by Galtier’s side. I was tempted to tip Nice to win but the price for Nice to win -1 is way above where I’d have it. Unibet are offering 12/5 which really is excellent value.

Strasbourg Vs Saint-Etienne – October 17th 14:00 BST

Both sides are what could be described as ‘sticky’. Most weeks they are in with a shout of winning or at least not losing a game which makes them ideal candidates for a both teams to score selection. In fact, in 78% of games involving either of these teams this season, both teams have scored. Strasbourg will likely score early with Saint-Etienne hanging around to score late. Wahbi Khazri’s return to form is a big boost for the away side.

SRD Selections:

Clermont Vs Lille – Over 2.5 @ EVS (Bet365, BetVictor)

Troyes Vs Nice – Nice to Win -1 @ 12/5 (Unibet)

Strasbourg Vs Saint-Etienne – BTTS @ 8/11 (WilliamHill)

Above in a treble pays just under 10/1 with Bet365 and Unibet