Europa League Tips: Home Sides To Give It A Shot
Liam's European tips have been very profitable in recent weeks and he's back with more top tips for the Europa League semi-final second legs.
We tipped up two winners in the Europa League last week including a 4/1 double and the SRD crew are enjoying something of a hot streak! Can Liam find some European football betting value for the third week running?
Arsenal (1) v (2) Villarreal Thursday 06 May 20:00 BST
Arsenal were very slow to start last week. Two nil down inside half an hour, they looked dead and buried. Their young guns failed to fire, with Saka, Smith-Rowe and Odegaard having little impact on the game. Aubameyang, Lacazette and Tierney were out injured and the bench looked light on options. Dani Ceballos did his very best to get sent off, and succeeded in picking up his second yellow on 57 minutes. Against all odds, the Gunners played their way back into the game through the unlikely partnership of Xhaka at fullback and Pepe at centre forward. They managed to pull one back and created enough chances to have at least tied the game.
In truth Villarreal were not all that impressive. Arsenal made three mistakes and paid for them with two goals. I can see a much more comfortable outing for the Gunners this week. Aubameyang played on Sunday and bagged a delightful late volley to hint at return to some form. Tierney, Lacazette, Bellerin and Gabriel could all be fit enough to make an appearance.
It will be interesting to see how Arteta and his misfiring Gunners react to the pressure here. They need to win the game at a minimum. If Villarreal manage to find a goal then Arsenal must outscore them by at least two. I have a feeling Arsenal will come good here, as they have a tendency to do lately in cup competitions.
Nine of their last eleven home games in this competition have seen at least three goals, the only exceptions being games against the ultra defensive Slavia and Olympiakos. With the big names back in the team, and the pressure on to win, I think Arsenal to win and over 2.5 goals is the best pick at 9/5.
Roma (2) v (6) Manchester United Thursday 06 May 20:00 BST
Oh Roma. Two away goals in the bag, winning away from home, and one foot planted in the Europa League final. What more could you want at half time? The Giallorossi managed to turn in one of their worst performances of the season in the second half. They shipped four goals in the final 30 minutes of the game, all but ending their hopes of making the final.
As is the case with most dead rubber second legs, this game is nearly impossible to predict. Roma to win is 27/10 and just about tempts. It would be no surprise if Solskjaer rested some of his star players, and the likes of Cavani and Bruno Fernandes could find themselves sitting this one out. It is hard to know what way Paulo Fonseca will treat this game, especially now that Jose Mourinho has been announced as his replacement for next season. However, I expect the outgoing manager to throw everything at this one, especially as Roma have nothing else to play for.
However, we could see some new faces from both teams with the contest all but irrelevant.
Give It A Shot
The shots market has proved profitable to us here at SRD for quite some time now and I see plenty of value in these games. Aubameyang has been knocking on the door for some time and looks to have put his bout of malaria behind him. I can see the club captain having a big game and he looks overpriced in the market. Elsewhere, Arsenal’s defensive players have to be considered at the odds available. Elneny is the standout price, the only question is if he starts. He racked up three shots at the weekend and even found the back of the net.
In Rome, there are plenty of long odds propositions, but again we will need to see the team sheets before diving in. Assuming Roma play a full strength team, and United rotate a little, the below selections look to be some of the stand out early prices.
Arsenal to Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 9/5
Aubameyang to have 2+ Shots on Target @ 6/4
Mohamed Elneny to have 1+ Shots on Target @ 5/1*
Roma to Win and Over 1.5 Goals @ 16/5
Lorenzo Pellegrini to have 2+ Shots on Target @ 7/2*
Donny van de Beek to have 2+ Shots on Target @ 9/1*
Juan Mata to have 2+ Shots on Target @ 9/1*
*I would suggest backing these now and cashing out if the player does not start.