Euro 2020 Bet Of The Day: Goals Galore
The competition outsiders are in action on Saturday along with tournament favourites England and Liam reckons there will be plenty of goals in store.
Czech Republic v Denmark 03 July 17:00 BST
From a match betting perspective this is a tough game to call. Not many people gave these teams much of a chance a couple of weeks ago. The Czechs were big outsiders against a high scoring Netherlands in the last round while Denmark looked set for a group stage exit before a rout of Russia.
You could make an emotional case for Denmark here. They have responded impressively after losing both their opening games and it would be easy to spin up a narrative around ‘playing for Eriksen‘. Emotions can only get you so far however and sooner or later they will come unstuck against a quality opponent. So far they have only managed to beat Russia and Wales – two of the least inspiring teams in the tournament.
The Czech Republic held their own against England in Group D and on another day could have drawn that match. Tomas Soucek missed a great chance late in the first half to level things up before the Czech threat faded away late on. Similarly, they were doing a fine job of shutting out the Netherlands before Matthijs de Ligt saw red. They dominated the Oranje after that but we need to take their second half performance with a grain of salt.
Denmark are even money favourites here but I’m more interested in the Czech Republic at 3/1. The Danes have struggled in this tournament when teams defend deep against them. Jaroslav Silhavy generally sets up this Czech side defensively, and I’m sure we’ll see that again here. With Patrik Schick in flying form and Soucek growing into the tournament I think they have a great shot at progressing.
Whether or not the Czechs are strong enough to hold out Denmark I can see plenty of goals in this one. When Denmark click they can score freely, especially if the Czech Republic are forced to chase the game. However, Denmark conceded in all three group games and I cannot see them keeping a clean sheet. Over 2.5 Goals looks over priced at 13/10 and I’ll definitely back that.
Ukraine v England 03 July 17:00 BST
This game sees the biggest outsiders left in Euro 2020 take on the favourites. To put that into context, England are 15/8 to win the competition outright, while Ukraine are 9/2 to qualify from this fixture and are 8/1 to win the game!
Do I think football is coming home? No. But do I think England slip up against this Ukraine side? Also no. Ukraine, like Denmark, are another team to qualify from their group with two losses. In fact, had Germany not scored a late equaliser against Hungary, or if Sweden failed to score a 94th minute winner against Poland, Ukraine would already be gone home. Not to mention the red card Sweden picked up against Ukraine in the Round of 16. They are quite lucky to still be here.
England’s route to the quarterfinal has been nothing if not efficient. They have not conceded a goal and in truth have barely conceded a chance. Thomas Muller missed a glorious opportunity to level the game against Germany late on, but aside from that, Pickford has remained largely untroubled.
If England play the same conservative brand of football against Ukraine I think this will be a no bet game for me. Southgate likes to play with seven defensive minded players and another boring but effective win should be in store.
However, part of me reckons the England manager will shake things up here. Some of the fringe, flair players in the squad are in need of game time an this will be Southgate’s only chance at something of free swing. Only once has any of Grealish, Sancho, Rashford, Bellingham or Calvert-Lewin played a full half of football in this tournament. England paid the price for their overreliance on key players at the 2018 World Cup and Southgate regularly talks about learning from past mistakes. If England change things up I like over 2.5 goals at 21/20 and the Bet365 market of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals at 15/8.
Czech Republic to Win @ 3/1
Czech Republic v Denmark Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/10
Ukraine v England Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20
Over 2.5 Goals in each game and BTTS in each game @ 17/2