Enzo’s Insights: Osimhen’s Hot Streak Looks Set To Continue
With some big games on the Peninsula this weekend, Enzo shares his bets for the Derby d'Italia and Napoli's trip to the Olimpico
Torino v Genoa Fri 22 Oct 17:00 BST
The Genoa goal express to Wongaville took an unscheduled stop at Unders Parkway on Matchday 7, just as I had bought myself a one-way ticket. It was the first of Genoa’s games this season to finish with less than 3 goals. However, the train got firmly back on track last weekend when the Grifoni played out a 2-2 draw with Sassuolo at the Marassi. Seven of their eight matches have now gone over 2.5. Despite the lamentable detour, I’m going to be hopping aboard once again this week.
Torino have just come off a tough run of fixtures which included Napoli, Juve and Lazio, all of which finished under the 2.5 mark. In fact, Toro have only surpassed that tally three times this season, a stat that doesn’t bode well for my bet. I’m willing to overlook it though because La Granata will see this as a winnable fixture and should ditch the defensive set up they employed against the big boys. Plus, over 2.5 at 10/11 is a generous price for any Serie A game this year given how frequently the net is being rattled.
Verona v Lazio Sun 24 Oct 14:00 BST
Lazio epitomise how difficult Serie A betting has been this season. Week in week out they go from the sublime to the ridiculous and back again. Their draw with then winless Cagliari was followed by a superb 3-2 derby win over arch rivals Roma. After that they suffered a humiliating 3-0 defeat to Bologna and subsequently hammered unbeaten Inter 3-1. Trying to predict the result of a Lazio game is a fools errand but one aspect of their performances that has remained fairly consistent is goals. 75% of the Aquiloti’s matches have topped 2.5 and 62% have gone over 3.5.
Verona too have been in excellent scoring form (88% over 3.5) but they cannot seem to hold onto a lead. Since Igor Tudor took the reins, Hellas have thrown away a 2 goal advantage on three occasions. Apart from their inability to kill of a match, Verona have shown a marked improvement under their new manager and it is only a matter of time before they start climbing the table.
I toyed with a few selections for this one but given the scoring stats I am going to back Over 3.5 goals at 19/10, which seems quite generous. I will also have a small punt on a Lazio win from behind at 8/1 considering Verona’s penchant for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Roma v Napoli Sun 24 Oct 17:00 BST
There is an old Sicilian proverb that goes something like “never fear Rome for the snake lies coiled in Naples”. The stats say take it literally and lump on a Napoli win at 6/4 but something tells me that the Partenopei’s 8 game winning streak is about to come to an end on Sunday afternoon.
Roma are unbeaten at the Olimpico however, they have yet to play a team inside the top 6 and have struggled against quality opposition on the road. A price of 9/5 for a home victory is enticing but instead I’m going to overrule my heart, avoid the results market altogether and go for Victor Osimhen to score anytime at 7/5. The Nigerian striker has been electrifying since returning from suspension and has bagged 5 in his last 5 starts so the odds on offer seem a little on the large side .
Inter v Juventus Sun 24 Oct 19:45 BST
The Derby d’Italia is arguably the biggest game of the Italian footballing calendar so even though nothing in particular stands out to me, it would be rude not to have a punt on it. Of the two sides, Juve are the ones who are in better shape coming into the tie. I mentioned last week how Max Allegri seems to have sorted out the Bianconeri’s early defensive problems and since then, they have racked up two further 1-0 victories extending the run to four on the trot.
Inter tasted their first league defeat of the season last Sunday when they were beaten by Lazio in Rome but they bounced back midweek with a 3-1 victory over Sheriff Tiraspol in the Champions League. Against his former club, Inzaghi’s team looked a bit disjointed and were uncharacteristically wasteful in front of goal. Whether this was a once off or not remains to be seen.
Historically, the Derby d’Italia has not been a very high scoring encounter. Six of the last 10 have seen fewer than 3 goals scored. Of those, Juventus have the winning edge (W6 D3 L1). Taking all this into account I am going to sit on the fence and back the draw at 5/2. Despite the uptick in form, this Juve are still not the Juve of old and a win at the San Siro against a decent Inter squad seems like too much of an ask. I also fancy the Nerazzurri to get on the scoresheet like they have done in every league match to date so I will put a small stake on 1-1 correct score at odds of 7/1.
Torino v Genoa: Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11
Verona v Lazio: Over 3.5 goals @ 19/10
Roma v Napoli: Victor Osimhen Anytime Scorer @ 7/5
Inter v Juventus: Draw @ 5/2