EFL Tips: Grab’ That Value With This 21/1 Parlay
There's a limited EFL schedule this weekend due to the FA Cup but Gaz has still managed to find value in this 21/1 accumulator.
The FA Cup means we’re limited to Championship action with a sprinkle of League One this weekend. There still looks to be some decent games and plenty of betting angles.
Nottingham Forest v Peterborough – Sat 4th Dec 15:00 GMT
Forest maintained their recent good run of form with a draw away at West Brom last Friday night. It was the third consecutive draw for the Tricky Trees but it now means they’ve only lost one of their last thirteen (W6, D6, L1). The high amount of draws is an obvious concern but overall their performances have been to a high level. They have a good mix within their squad and with Lewis Grabban upfront they pose a dangerous threat going forward. Grabban has eight goals to his name this season and he’s a player that really makes this side tick. If he brings his “A game” on Saturday I’d expect him to score at least one goal.
Peterborough have been in poor form of late with no wins in their last six matches (W0, D2, L4). Both of those draws came at London Road but away from home it’s three defeats on the spin. In those three defeats the Posh have failed to score and conceded nine in total. If we extend the view to the whole season their away form does not look in any way pretty. In their ten games on the road they’ve lost nine (W1, D0, L9), scored five and conceded twenty eight (yes 28). With that in mind the home win looks a banker at 7/10.
Bristol City v Derby – Sat 4th Dec 15:00 GMT
After what seemed like a never ending run of home fixtures without a home win (17 matches), Bristol City seemed to have turned things around and are now unbeaten in their last three games (W2, D1, L0) at Ashton Gate. Although they’re in 18th position in the league, they’re only 5 points off 8th place which highlights the competitiveness of the Championship. Nigel Pearson is a good manager at this level and he’ll definitely be eyeing a top half finish. If they are to continue their good run they’ll need to be at their best to overcome a dogged Derby side.
Wayne Rooney and his squad deserve a lot of credit. Personally I’d written their season off before it started given their transfer restrictions. They proved me wrong and have continued to make their critics look silly. Most sane people thought the 21 point deduction imposed by the Football League would have a demoralising affect but the Rams have continued to perform admirably. The hits keep on coming for Rooney though and with the news that the club could face liquidation, will the cracks start to appear?
From a betting perspective the win market looks too close to call. Derby have caused lost of teams problems so far this season, including when they beat high flying Bournemouth a couple of weeks ago while also drawing with table-toppers Fulham. A more sensible bet looks to be goals. Seven of Derby’s last eight games has seen both teams score and it looks to me like that could happen again. Both teams to score at 9/10 is the bet for me here.
Millwall v Birmingham – Sat 4th Dec 15:00 GMT
This looks like a match for the traditionalists. Both of these sides love a battle and both sets of fans are known to get pretty feisty. It should be a tight game as neither side have been prolific in front of goal. Millwall have played 10 home games in the league and only netted on 11 occasions. Birmingham have played 9 away from St Andrews and only netted 9 times. With that in mind you’d expect this to be a low scoring affair. To me the draw looks the perfect bet. Millwall are draw specialist having drawn 9 of their 20 league games, including 3 of their last 4. Birmingham don’t have quite as good a record in terms of draws but two of their last four away games have seen the points shared.
Sunderland v Oxford – Sat 4th Dec 15:00 GMT
To round out the accumulator I’m delving into League One where there’s two fixtures. You might think this is a game to avoid given Sunderland are fifth and Oxford are eight. When you look at the home versus away form though there’s only one bet to be had. Sunderland have only been beaten once at the Stadium of Light and that loss came in a game they dominated. The key to their home form has been their defensive record allowing just 4 goals in 8 matches. At the other end of the pitch they average 2 goals scored per home game. Any team with those stats shouldn’t be odds against in my opinion.
Oxford have struggled on the road winning just 2 of their 8 away matches and average just one goal scored in those fixtures. They are unbeaten in their last 6 (4 home, 2 away) and that’s probably the reason the bookmakers are dangling the Sunderland carrot. I’m going with a home win here at 6/5.
Nottingham Forest v Peterborough – Nottingham Forest Win (7/10)
Bristol City v Derby – Both Teams To Score (9/10)
Millwall v Birmingham – Draw (21/10)
Sunderland v Oxford -Sunderland Win (6/5)
Above in an accumulator (21/1)