EFL Tips: Bet On Baggies
Gaz came close to landing a 54/1 accumulator last Saturday and now turns his focus to the English Football League mid-week schedule.
After Saturday’s frustration it’s time to look forward to the mid-week EFL action. Two of the four selections won last weekend, but both Forest Green and Leyton Orient drew their respective games costing the bet. Both teams dominated and ended their games playing against 10 men. Definitely a bet for the “unlucky” category.
Cardiff v West Brom – Tue 28th Sept 19:45 BST
West Brom featured in our Friday night BetAlong last Friday when beating QPR (2-1). Anyone who tuned in will have heard me say how end-to-end the game was. From a neutrals perspective it was a great watch, but I’m sure Baggies fans would prefer a little more stability in defence. Going forward they have lots of quality and even if matches turn into shootouts, they’ll have the ability to out score most teams.
Cardiff were condemned to their third consecutive league defeat on Saturday. That is a bad enough stat but the most concerning element was the manner of the defeat. The Bluebirds were absolutely hammered (5-1) by Blackburn. The last thing they would have wanted was a visit from title chasing West Brom. Cardiff have now lost four of their last five games and with that in mind the evens for a West Brom win sticks out as value. I can’t see there being just one goal in this game so West Brom & over 1.5 goals at 6/4 is the bet for me.
Plymouth v Crewe – Tue 28th Sept 19:45 BST
I tipped Plymouth (4th) last weekend and they duly won. In that write-up I highlighted that Argyle’s home form was a key strength and that plays a key part in my thinking once again. I also highlighted their fire power and one of the players I name checked (Luke Jephcott) was on the scoresheet. The EFL can be grueling and no game is easy. With that in mind I like to look out for advantages in the schedule, particularly when there’s a quick turnaround. Back-to-back games at Home Park is a real benefit to The Pilgrims, especially as this will be Crewe’s second away game in four days.
As well as being at a disadvantage from a scheduling perspective, Crewe (23rd) are very much out of form, particularly on the road. They’ve yet to win a league game away from Alexandra Stadium (W0, D2, L3). The Railwaymen have steadied the ship after a terrible start to the season but this looks like a tough ask. They’ve only scored two goals on the road this season and I’d expect Plymouth to outclass them in this game.
MK Dons v Fleetwood – Tue 28th Sept 19:45 BST
This game features two sides in very good form. Fleetwood (18th) had a shocking start the the season losing their first three league games (four games in all competitions). There’s been a marked improvement since, and even though they’ve drawn their last two games, those matches have been against decent teams. They’re definitely not “no hopers” in this match. The Cod Army are another team that face a quick turnaround of two away games. Travelling to MK Dons (3rd) is a tough ask. I also think that the off field controversy will have to bleed onto the pitch at some stage. Chairman Andrew Pilley is at the center of fraud and money-laundering allegations. Even though those charges aren’t related to Football operations, it can’t be ideal.
MK Dons are flying high and just one point off the top of the table. Their home form (W4, D0, L1) has been a key contributor to that league position and I think they’ll bag another home win on Tuesday. They’ve been strong defensively in those games, conceding just three goals in five games at Stadium MK. In their last three home victories they kept a clean sheet. An MK Dons win to nil is priced at 11/5 and that is very tempting. I’m going to play it safe a back a home win at 20/23.
Cardiff v West Brom – West Brom & Over 1.5 Goals (6/4)
Plymouth v Crewe – Plymouth Win (3/4)
MK Dons v Fleetwood – MK Dons Win (20/23)
Above in a treble (7/1)