College Football Dogs: Week 7 Bets And Predictions

LB Looks at some road dogs in the CFB but expects some big names to cover at home too

The CFB carnage continued in Week 6 with Texas A&M beating ‘Bama the pick of the lot. I told you weeks ago the Aggies would win this game and they did it in style. That lands us another of our pre-season bets with Alabama Under 11.5 Wins coming in at +110 or 11/10. Recently I advised a few conference-winner bets and all three are looking a lot better now than they did a week ago. We are on a serious roll betting college football underdogs so let’s dive into Week 7.

Moneyline Upsets

Clemson @ Syracuse

This is a very straightforward one. The Tigers have been awful so far this season and are struggling to adapt to life without Trevor Lawrence. Aside from beating up on a FCS school they have played four games, going 2-2. They failed to score 20 points in any of those games and only managed 5 TDs in total. Syracuse pushed Wake Forest to OT last week, the best team in the conference. I think this line is based on history not form and I’m all over the home dog here.

#20 Florida @ LSU

LSU are 10.5 underdogs at home against Florida but I’m not sure that is right. LSU has been inconsistent this season and we have made money backing against them. That being said, they still have a lot of potential and the players must know that Coach O will be sacked if they lose this game.

The Tigers picked up a win at Mississippi State before a single score loss to a highly impressive Auburn program in Week 4 and Week 5 respectively. On the surface they were stuffed by Kentucky in Week 7 but the final scoreline of 41-24 was not representative of the game at all. LSU fumbled the ball on their first possession, gifting the Wildcats an early TD. Then on their second drive, the Tigers lost possession on downs, again giving Kentucky a second straightforward TD. Again in the third quarter LSU went for it on fourth down, again they lost possession and Kentucky scored on the following drive. I do not mean to say the Wildcats did not deserve to win, but LSU threw this one away by trying too hard.

I was hot on the Gators all summer but they have really only impressed in defeat so far. Florida has a very high ceiling but the loss to Alabama is probably the best they have looked. Their four wins have come against Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Going to Baton Rouge for an evening game is a whole different animal. Ed Orgeron is a cult hero in Louisiana and the crowd will be rocking for this game (although in truth a win will probably not save his job come the end of the season).

That recent road loss in Kentucky is the only time this season the Tigers have failed to cover 11 points and this line looks like an overreaction. The moneyline win at +335 (or 16/5) also looks too juicy to pass on.

Navy @ Memphis

The Midshipmen travel to Memphis as 10.5 point underdogs and I fancy the upset here. This is not a bet for the faint of heart because looking at the results Navy has been awful this season. They are 1-4 and average just 62 passing yards per game. However, if you look a little closer there are signs of improvement.

Navy lost their first two games by a combined score of 72-10 and were nothing short of abject. Then they went to Houston and put up 20 points before losing courtesy of two late Cougar TDs. Next came a win against UCF before a single score loss to the SMU Mustangs last week. Once again, Navy only lost because of a lopsided 4th quarter.

I believe the Mustangs are vastly superior to Memphis and if Navy can perform to the level of their last three games (two final quarters aside) then they can win this straight up. Memphis opened the season well, with two high scoring wins against Arkansas State and Mississippi State but the Tigers have regressed a bit. They continue to allow plenty of points but they are struggling to get the same points on the board as they did in August.

This certainly feels like a long shot but at odds of 16/5 it is definitely worth it.

Home Comforts And Comfortable Covers

Purdue @ Iowa

I am not sure why Iowa is not more than 11 point favourites against Purdue here. After Georgia they have the best defense in the FSB and have shown it by beating two top ten sides already. Purdue has scored just 13 points in each of their last three games, against Notre Dame, Illinois and Minnesota. None of those programs are in the same conversation as Iowa defensively. This is the game where the Hawkeyes start to wrap up the Big Ten West and force their way into the College Football Playoffs conversation.

Oklahoma State @ Texas

The Longhorns coughed up 25 points in the final quarter last week to lose the Red River Rivalry in what must have been a stinging loss for Steve Sarkisian. This week they take on Oklahoma State back in Austin to get their season back on track. They are 5 point home favourites and I expect them to cover with ease.

Oklahoma State has not played against a team as good as Texas so far. Yes their defense is ranked one of the best but it has been flattered a bit by the opposition. This impressive defensive record has compensated for a surprisingly poor offense and the Cowboys could come undone as we approach the business end of the season.

Despite the not-too-difficult schedule, Oklahoma State has not scored more than 31 points in any game. Nearly a third of their possessions end in a punt (118th overall) and they only average 5.1 yards per play.

Texas has its own problems, particularly around switching off at bizarre moments. A calamitous 6 and a half minutes against Arkansas saw them ship 17 points to all but lose the game, not to mention the final quarter against the Sooners. Back home after that meltdown in Dallas there should be no lapses and the Longhorns will put on a show.

Circular Logic

Alabama @ Mississippi State

Mississippi State beat Texas A&M. Then A&M beat Alabama. So surely Mississippi State have a shot at beating ‘Bama too? Not according to the odds, because the Bulldogs are 17 point home underdogs when the Tide rolls into the Davis Wade Stadium. Alabama are on a 13 game winning streak against Miss State. It couldn’t happen surely?

SRD Selections:

Clemson @ Syracuse – Syracuse moneyline win @ 9/2

Clemson @ Syracuse – Syracuse +13.5 @ 10/11 2U

Florida @ LSU – LSU moneyline win @ 16/5

Florida @ LSU – LSU +12 @ 10/11

Navy @ Memphis – Navy moneyline win @ 16/5

Navy @ Memphis – Navy +10.5 @ 10/11

Purdue @ Iowa – Iowa – 11.5 @ 10/11 2U

Oklahoma State @ Texas – Texas -4 @ 10/11

Moneyline trixie of LSU, Navy and Mississippi State – the treble component pays 118/1 0.25U

12/1 Parlay of Syracuse, Iowa, Texas and LSU ATS (+1228)

Personal Thoughts:

I was at the Memorial Coliseum on Saturday to see the Utes run all over USC. If they play like that again then #18 Arizona will be no match for them this week.

A win for Utah (at home) would put them with one foot in the Pac-12 Conference game. They are +700 to win the conference and really only Oregon are significantly ahead of the Utes.