Champions League Tips: Take A Shot On This Tuesday Treble
LB sees some value in the underdogs and likes three long odds forwards to hit the target in the shots market.
The Champions League is back and there are some interesting betting angles this week. Some groups are completely wrapped up while others hang in the balance. I will look to the shots market where once again I see a lot of value.
RB Leipzig v Man City – Tue 7th Dec 17:45 GMT
City are guaranteed top spot in Group A and it would be no surprise to see Pep rest some key players. The Citizens have four games over the next 12 days and this is the only one of no consequence. Leipzig on the other hand are tied on points with Club Brugge in the battle for a Europa League spot.
There is no doubt the German club have struggled this season. Slatts picked out some huge value in backing against them last week (as part of a 45/1 winner!) but they have a solid record of scoring goals, even when losing. That being said, I am not so sure they will lose here. Despite being hammered in Manchester, Leipzig are only 27/10 here so it looks like the bookies share the same opinion. There is still, however, betting value to be found.
Christopher Nkunku scored a hatrick when these two last met and he is RBs’ top scorer this season. He has racked up over 3 shots per game in the Champions League this season, scoring 7 goals along the way. In the league he has been just as impressive, averaging well over two shots per game. I am surprised he is so far down the betting market here and at 10/3 for 2+ SOT he looks a bargain.
PSG v Club Brugge – Tue 7th Dec 17:45 GMT
This bet is based on a similar logic to the other game in Group A. PSG are locked into second place and have nothing to play for, while Brugge need a win to keep their Europa League hopes alive. The Belgians are a huge price at 8/1 but I’m not sure they have enough to actually win this one. Instead I prefer the value in the shots market.
Hans Vanaken’s form took a bit of hit recently, but so did that of Brugge in general. The club had something of a wobble last month (W2 D1 L4) but look to be back on track now after three consecutive wins.
Vanaken has scored in three of Club’s Champions League games this season and was averaging three shots per game before the implosion away to Leipzig. That game came in the middle of Brugge’s blip so I’m happy to discount it. At 5/1 for 2+ SOT, and a little under evens for one, he looks hugely overpriced.
AC Milan v Liverpool – Tue 7th Dec 20:00 GMT
This is another game that means a lot more to one team than the other. AC Milan need to win, while Liverpool are already guaranteed top spot. Is there value in the upset here? Unfortunately not, as the bookies seem to have clocked this angle, with the Italians priced just outside evens at 21/20 to win.
Where I do see value is with Liverpool. I expect Klopp will rotate quite a bit and Divock Origi is likely to be rewarded with a start after his heroics at the weekend. He is priced at 11/4 for 2+ SOT and it does not look like a starting role has been accounted for in his odds.
Christopher Nkunku 2+ SOT @ 16/5
Hans Vanaken 2+ SOT @ 5/1
Divock Origi 2+ SOT @ 11/4
The above in a treble at a little under 94/1 (0.5U)