Champions League Tips: Take A Shot On These Outsiders
The Champions League is back and LB fancies a few lesser known names to hit the target in this 37/1 SOT treble
The Champions League is back and we’re hoping for a better run that we had in week one. Despite a very profitable month for myself and SRD, the Champions League bets were a bust a fortnight ago. With that in mind I’ve gone back to my old reliable UCL market of shots on target.
RB Leipzig v Club Brugge Tue 28 Sept 20:00 BST
The first one is an obvious one for anyone who watched our stream on Friday. I called that Brugge would slip up with one eye on this game and that’s exactly what happened (that was part of our 15/1 winning acca live on air so make sure to tune in this Friday!).
Brugge are 5/1 underdogs away to Leipzig and the straight win for the guests was my first thoughts here. I’ve fancied this result since the first round results and Club Brugge still look over priced. There is no doubt that Rassenball have the quality but we saw the Belgians go toe-to-toe with PSG and they will hold no fear against a mediocre Leipzig. RB absolutely hammered Hertha Berlin at the weekend and that is their only win since an opening day rout of Stuttgart. When things click they can certainly score but they are painfully open and leave themselves very vulnerable at the back.
With that in mind I think a much safer bet is for Brugge forward Hans Vanaken to have two or more shots on target (2+ SOT). He shoots a lot and scores plenty and he will hit the target if given the chance. Even if Leipzig blows Club out of the water, which I doubt, Vanaken should still find himself with chances in front of goal as the Germans tend to allow a lot of shots even in games they win.
Vanaken will likely start as the second striker on Tuesday and at 7/2 for 2+ SOT he’s a great price. He managed four shots (with two on target) against PSG and should find Leipzig even more obliging.
AC Milan v Atletico Madrid Tue 28 Sept20:00 BST
Sticking with the profitable shots-on-target market I like the look of Alexis Saelemaekers here. The Beligan was arguably Milan’s man of the match at the weekend. He set up the Rossoneri’s late winner and was energetic throughout. Atletico, unsurprisingly, will set up to frustrate their hosts on Tuesday. I find that in such games you often see the less typical goal scorers getting more chances than normal. Whoever starts up front for Milan will likely find themselves under relentless pressure from the miserly Atleti rearguard and I can see Saelemaekers deciding to shoot when he finds no pass on. At 21/10 for just a single SOT I can’t say no.
I am still not entirely sure what to make of this Milan team which is why I am staying away from the win market. I will probably back the Italians at just inside 2/1 but the jury is still out on them. They performed admirably under serious pressure at Anfield a fortnight ago but Atletico are famously difficult and this will be a stern test of Milan’s credentials.
Porto v Liverpool Tue 28 Sept20:00 BST
Porto are a very tough team to back this year because they are rotating players almost for the sake of it. They have plenty of quality but Sérgio Conceição doesn’t quite seem to know what his preferred eleven is. Despite that, they are unbeaten so far and impressed in two difficult away games, drawing with both Sporting and Atletico earlier this month.
Liverpool are rightly favourites but I think a price of 3/4 is a little stingy. They looked sloppy against Brentford at the weekend and are allowing far more chances than we have come to expect of Klopp’s team. In fact, they have allowed 37 shots in their last three games, against Crystal Palace, Norwich and Brentford – three of the favourites for relegation in the Premier League. I would not be surprised to see them slip up here, but at the very least Porto will give them a run for their money.
Despite the rotation, Marko Grujic should start for the home side. He has slowly played his way into the team after a muscle injury in August and the Serbian was one of the few Porto players to manage a shot during the recent trip to the Spanish capital. At 13/8 for a single SOT he is definitely worth including here.
RB Leipzig v Club Brugge – Vanaken 2+ SOT @ 7/2
AC Milan v Atletico Madrid – Saelemaekers 1+ SOT @ 21/10
Porto v Liverpool – Grujic 1+ SOT @ 13/8
The above in a treble is a little under 37/1 with Betfair.