Breeders Cup Tips: Value Bets For A Super Saturday
Day two of the Breeders Cup World Championships is stacked with quality action and our tipster has three value plays to help you enjoy the action.
While Friday’s action at the Breeders Cup focusses on stars of the future, Saturday’s action sees the older generations collide. It looks a pretty epic card with 12 races in total and 11 of those being graded. I’ll be glued to the action throughout the weekend and hopefully this column can help provide some winners.
My first bet on Saturday will come in Race 7 (Filly & Mare Turf). This race looks wide open even though the market is mainly dominated by European entrants. Historically American horses have struggled in the turf races but this year they have a big chance in the shape of War Like Goddess. She’s been impressive this season and comes into this race after winning her last four. She’ll need a career best to win this race, but she’s definitely in with a big shout. The Aidan O’Brien trained Love is the current favourite and overall she looks to have the best form. In particular her wins as a three-year-old put her miles ahead of the rest of the field. Her runs this year though have been disappointing and she’s on a recovery mission here. The vibes from the stable are positive and she has been drawn in an ideal spot (stall 6). Given the questions over her form this season I’m not sure there’s value in the price of 7/2, and with that in mind I’m taking her on in this one.
Audarya won this race last year at big odds and it would be no surprise to see her win it again. Her form this season ties in closely with Love (beaten 3/4 lengths in June) and the price (11/2) is appealing. The draw (stall 12) is a major negative though and she’ll need a peach of a ride from William Buick to win from there. My selection here is Rougir who finished in front of Audarya last time out in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp. That’s a pretty good level of form and a repeat of that run would see her involved at the business end of this race. She’s drawn well in stall 4 and at 10/1 looks a brilliant each way bet. The one concern I’d have is the ground. Cedric Rossi’s filly has been running on soft ground for most of her career and this will be the fastest surface she’ll have ever faced. I think there’s enough juice in the price to override that concern and hopefully she can get the day off to a good start.
Fire To Blaze A Trail
Race 8 (Breeders Cup Sprint) takes place on the dirt and could turn into a one horse race. Jackie’s Warrior looks far superior to this field and unless he has an off day, should win. The bookmakers haven’t missed that fact as the price of 11/10 indicates. If you like to bet on favorites, Jackie’s Warrior looks one of the best favourites on Saturday’s card. I think I’ve found better value though. Firenze Fire is a horse that looks to have been totally underestimated by the layers. In the normal win market you can get odds of 16/1 which looks great value. He’s drawn well in stall 6 and I’m pretty sure he’ll outrun his odds. Front running can be a big asset at Del Mar and this horse’s best efforts have come when racing prominently. If he can break well and get a good position on the front end he’ll have a live chance. My recommendation is to bet in the without the favourite market where you can get odds of 8/1.
Make Money With The Master
Race 9 (Breeders Cup Mile) looks to be the race of the meeting. This is an open race and a case could be made for most of the runners. To my mind the Godolphin horses hold the key here. Space Blues head the market and he’s a horse I have a big soft spot for. His talent is undoubted and he has the potential to blow this field away. The big concern with this horse is whether he stays the mile distance, as all his best form has been over 6 and 7 furlongs. If he wins I’ll be delighted, but from a betting perspective the price is too short for me. Instead I’m backing his stablemate Master Of The Seas who looks to be overpriced. His run in the 2000 Guineas earlier this season was terrific and if he can repeat that he’ll be bang in the mix. He had an injury setback after that run and he’s been patiently brought back to full fitness. Personally I’d forget about the run last time out on Champions Day. The ground was all wrong at Ascot and he never looked comfortable. Back on a firm surface with an ideal draw in stall 1 and a great jockey (James Doyle) aboard. he looks like a great each way bet at 14/1.
Race 7 (20:59 GMT/15:59 EST) – Rougir (10/1 PaddyPower) Each Way
Race 8 (21:38 GMT/16:38 EST) – Firenze Fire (8/1 Betfair) Win (WO Fav)
Race 9 (22:20 GMT/17:20 EST) – Master Of The Seas (14/1 Bet Victor) Each Way