Ayr Tips: Golden Silver
After tipping an 8/1 winner last weekend Gaz is back with his top horse racing tips and he has some fancies at big prices.
It was nice to get back amongst the winners last week when tipping up an 8/1 shot. Viewers of our livestream would have been happy if they followed the advised reverse forecast in the St Leger at Doncaster. It was a great performance by Hurricane Lane and he’s now as short as 5/1 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, which is shaping up to be a sensational race.
My first bet on Saturday will be in the Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (14:30). Blackrod is the current favourite having won back-to back races but I think he’s worth taking on here. This is probably the most competitive race he’s run this season and he’ll need a career best. He is lightly race and could improve further but 5/1 is very skinny odds in a race like this. I’ve done something that I hate doing and changed my mind on my selection. When analysing the race on Thursday I had picked out Tinto (33/1) as my selection. He’s dropped 14lb in the handicap since last August. That’s a massive drop especially considering there has been hope in some of his runs this season. He won off a mark of 100 last season (91 rated currently) and I’ll be kicking myself if he wins.
My selection is going to be a horse that I tipped up earlier in the season, Golden Apollo. He finished second that day landing the each way money but I think he could go one better here. The main factor in my logic is the rain that fell at Ayr on Friday. There has been significant downpours at the track and there is some rain predicted overnight and in spells on Saturday. That should make the ground slower than the expected Good To Firm and will play into Golden Apollo’s hands. He won this race on Good ground back in 2019 when rated 2lb higher. At 22/1 and with firms such as William Hill paying 6 places he looks like a decent bet.
The quality race of the day is the Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Fillies Stakes (15:05). This is a Group race for two year old fillies and I’m keeping it simple and plumbing for the Irish raider Head Mistress. The Ger Lyons team have been in great form recently (21% strike rate in last 14 days) and this filly looks to have a great chance. She made a good impression when winning at Down Royal on debut and then impressed further when winning a Listed race at the Curragh last month. Both of those runs were over five furlongs and I think she could improve for this step up in trip.
Lahore To Spice Things Up
The feature race is the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (15:40). This is extremely competitive and there’s a lot of these that you could make a case for. Gulliver is an old favourite of many punters and ran well in Ireland recently. He could go close but I think he’s a little high is the weights and probably a little short in the market too. Summerghand is another punters pal but it will be difficult to win this off top weight. Although his recent Listed win shows that he’s still in fine fettle, I’m taking a punt on the outsider of the field.
Lahore is currently 40/1 with William Hill (paying 6 places) but you can get 50’s with other firms (paying 5 or less places). He finished sixth in this race last year (when also a 50/1 shot) and he was rated 7lb higher. Phillip Makin’s charge does need to find form again. Some of his runs this season have been shocking but this looks to have been his target all year. At extreme odds I’m willing to take a chance.
14:30 Ayr – Golden Apollo (22/1) Each Way (William Hill Paying 6 Places)15:05
15:05 Ayr – Head Mistress (7/2) Win (William Hill, Bet365)
15:40 Ayr – Lahore (40/1) Each Way (William Hill Paying 6 Places)